The gambler’s fallacy is a popular misconception that if something happens more frequently than the opposite out come, it has less chances of happening again in the future. Why do we call it a misconception? Well, you can certainly get “21” in blackjack eight times in a row, but there's still the same chance of getting “21” on the ninth or tenth hands. Which means, there ain't no “balance of nature” that will change the course of a game. Professional players know that the odds don’t change, but new players often fall into the trap and will continue to deplete their entire bankroll on the same game. WHAT DO WE CALL A GAMBLER’S FALLACY? The gambling fallacy is a phenomenon where players believe that the odds must move in their favor and the randomness of a game, roulette for example, must become predictable over time. Imagine a situation when you lose multiple times in a row. Wouldn't you think that certain number in your favor is “due” after so many losses? To every player's regret, odds remain the same for every new game played. It’s possible, in roulette, that it will land on black 100 times in a row, albeit very unlikely. Monte Carlo Fallacy The Monte Carlo Casino is where this fallacy is said to have originated way back in 1913. Players at the casino assumed that after the second or third time the roulette ball landed on black, the odds would eventually change. Game after game, people started to bet on red. They continued betting multiple times, over and over no matter how much they lost.
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April 2021
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